Macleans: Potter Gold

declinism revisited

Andrew Potter — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:31:18 -0400

My print column for Maclean's this week follows up on the declinism theme, arguing that what the planet needs are more people, not fewer.

I also did a short Earth Day hit on CBC's The Current on Tuesday, you can find it here. I was on between 9 and 9:30.

on the other hand

Andrew Potter — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:11:43 -0400

“Wealth is not without its advantages and the case to the contrary, although it has often been made, has never proved widely persuasive.” -- John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affluent Society

happiness and money (II)

Andrew Potter — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:06:33 -0400

Here's the beginning and end of it:

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds, result misery.” -- Mr. Micawber, in David Copperfield

you're both wrong

Andrew Potter — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:02:12 -0400

In the issue of Maclean's coming out today, you might come across Steve Maich's piece about how we told you so -- money does buy happiness. What Steve will be telling you about is new research that purports to undermine the "Easterlin paradox", the phenomenon whereby after a certain level of GDP -- usually around $10k per capita -- aggregate happiness stops rising.

The most commonly accepted explanation for the paradox is that absolute income matters in poor countries, because what most people lack are basic necessities like decent food and shelter and simple amenities such as indoor plumbing, central heating, and household appliances. In short, just no longer being cold, wet, and hungry tends to make people considerably happier.

In a more affluent economy though, what supposedly matters is status, and what determines status is your relative income -- that is, how you compare to those you work with or who live near you. But this only means that people in an affluent society are engaged in a consumerist arms race or “aspiration treadmill,” which leads to the cycles of competitive consumption that lead to higher incomes at stagnant levels of happiness.

The paradox has fueled the aspirations of social engineers for the past thirty years. After all, if economic growth is not making us any happier, shouldn’t the state step in and do something to limit growth? One of the most popular policy suggestions is a steeply progressive tax on luxury consumer goods, which would serve as a sort of growth-limiting arms treaty. Politicians have also jumped on the happiness-not-growth bandwagon: Two summers ago, British Tory leader David Cameron gave a speech in which he advanced the original argument that “there’s more to life than money,” going on to suggest that what the government ought to focus on is not GDP but “GWB”, or general well-being.

But economists have been steadily chipping away at the Easterlin paradox, and the pendulum is now swinging back into pro-growth territory. The most recent attack comes in the form of a paper by two economists from the Brookings Institute that looked at new surveys and reinterpreted some old data. It found that not only is overall satisfaction substantially higher in the richest countries, but also that absolute wealth seems to matter more than was previously thought. Money, it concludes, does buy happiness.

Easterlin’s followers are not conceding defeat, because the standoff here is as much about politics as it is about economics. Lefties like the paradox, because the evidence that money isn’t making us happy supports an anti-growth political agenda and underwrites state intervention in the economy. Opponents of the paradox are keen on new research showing that growth does make us happy, because it serves a libertarian pro-growth agenda. But as is usually the case when it comes to interminable academic debates, both sides are working off a common mistaken assumption, which is that the point of either the government or the economy is to make people happy.

That is false. The government is not there to make you happy, nor is happinenss the point of economic growth. The state is there, first and foremost, to keep you safe. Meanwhile, the wealth generated by economic growth is not worthwhile in itself. Money is just the heat thrown off by the engine of innovation, and what is valuable about innovation is not that it makes people happy, but that it serves as a sort of social immune system. Just as your body’s immune system is constantly generating new shapes of antibodies to meet any potential threat, a growing economy uses the process of creative destruction to generate a constant stream of innovation in the form of new products, new technologies, and better ways of manipulating our bodies and our environment. The more innovation we have, the more flexible and effective we can be in response to challenges like disease, military threats, and environmental catastrophe.

So -- what’s the secret to happiness? Turns out it isn’t money, it isn't fame and glory, or friends and family, or hard work and moral rectitude, or any of the countless other prescriptions for achieving the good life that have been mooted over the centuries. No, if you really want to become happy, all you have to do is get old.

According to a new study out of the University of Chicago, the happiest Americans are the oldest. At 88, fully one third of respondents reported that they were very happy, while only 24 percent of people in their early twenties could say the same. Overall, the odds of being happy increased five percent with every ten years of age. According to the study’s author, sociologist Yang Yang, older people might have more aches and pains, but they’ve also learned to happy with what they have.

This is not exactly a pleasant thought -- happiness is just another word for nothing left to live for -- but perhaps some good might come of it. If we’re lucky, this new research will finally derail one of the more pointless economic debates of the past thirty years, over the supposed link between wealth and happiness.

'ockey at the speed of 'air

Andrew Potter — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 23:10:35 -0400

Montreal rock band Speedhair has produced the hockey anthem of the year. Go Habs Go is a pulsing rewrite of their metal hit Double Deuce, but rumours that the song actually inspired the riots the other night are slightly exaggerated.

Here's their myspace site with Go Habs Go streaming. They evengot a mention on the NY Times hockey blog.

Go Habs Go. The song almost writes itself.

the infomercial candidate

Andrew Potter — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 22:34:30 -0400

Did I imagine it, or did Hillary Clinton just interrupt her victory speech to ask people to send money?

Classy lot, these Clintons.

saving the earth one sip at a time

Andrew Potter — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 10:50:53 -0400

I've pretty much given up trying to figure out whether the press releases that come out of the Conservative party are a put-on or not. I'm inclined to think that they are basically just having sport with the Canadian people, because the alternative -- that they are sincere -- is too preposterous to credit.

Anyway, if you're an aspiring standup comedian looking for tips on how to write dynamite material, you could do worse than to get on a few Tory MP mailing lists. For example:

***

MP Cheryl Gallant Celebrates Earth Day

LAURENTIAN VALLEY, April 22 2008 – MP Cheryl Gallant, MP Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke celebrated Earth Day by taking a drink of water from the tap instead of a plastic bottle. “Saving the environment isn’t just a matter of politicians passing laws. It stars at the person level with putting disposable coffee cups in the recycling bin instead of out the window of a vehicle and drinking water from the tap instead of a plastic bottle.”

“Earth Day is a great opportunity to reflect and be proud of what we’ve accomplished, and to think about how we can all continue to work to protect our environment,” agreed Environment Minister John Baird. “A simple act of drinking tap water is a great example of a concrete action can take, right in their own homes.”

Being Ken Whyte: the multipolar world

Andrew Potter — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 23:08:45 -0400

Here's my interview with Parag Khanna, in yesterday's Ottawa Citizen. As usual, it hasn't been formatted properly so you have to sort of guess where my questions end and his responses begin.

cold warrior

Andrew Potter — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 17:49:26 -0400

In question period today, Peter Mackay does his best Sen. Joe McCarthy imitation, and in so doing solidifies his status as the classiest guy in the House:

*****

    Ms. Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North, NDP): Mr. Speaker, 442 squadron is flying 50-year-old Buffalo search-and-rescue planes. Only two other countries use these planes. The Kenyans sold theirs and the Brazilians are selling parts to us. However, there are not enough propellors to go around.
    This government promised to replace the aging fixed-wing aircraft. Now it will be waiting six more years.
    Our SAR techs are doing their best to provide safety for British Columbians. Will the government give them the modern equipment they need to do their job today?

    Hon. Peter MacKay (Minister of National Defence and Minister of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, CPC): Mr. Speaker, again, it is not only cynical, it is hypocritical for the member from the NDP to be getting up and somehow now trying to suggest she is worried about the health and welfare and well-being of the Canadian Forces.
    On every single occasion, we have brought legislation, we have brought bills, we have brought initiatives before this House for support for the Canadian Forces, the veterans and their families, that member and that party in the communist corner have voted against them.

just dropped in for a visit

Andrew Potter — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:59:15 -0400

The Tories have put out a press release. It is pure comedy:

¨¨Today Elections Canada visited the Conservative Party of Canada Headquarters. This is related to an on-going court case initiated by the Conservative Party of Canada in the spring of 2007. The Conservative Party has provided Elections Canada with all the information that they have requested.¨¨

Because outer space needs more Canada

Andrew Potter — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 13:43:27 -0400

Let's play a parlour game. So the aliens have finally arrived, the spaceships are hovering over all the major cities of the earth, and the following request arrives: Please send three representatives to meet with your new overlords.

Ok, so, who do we send? Who are humanity's envoys to the men from the stars? I'll skip the hypotheticals, except to note that the Handcaper would almost certainly send Cameron Diaz and LeBron James.

Two good choices, but we can do better. In fact, I think it is fairly obvious that we should send the following individuals:

1. William Shatner
2. Pamela Anderson
3. Keanu Reeves

tautology watch: quebec immigrantion

Andrew Potter — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 10:40:17 -0400

Today's Post has a discouraging report from Jack Jedwab on the employment status of french-speaking allophones (i.e., immigrants to the province whose only official language is french), compared with allophones who speak english or both official languages. It's not pretty:

Across Quebec, the unemployment rate for French-hspeaking allophones was 23% compared with 10.6% for those who spoke English. The unemployment rate for allophones who spoke both English and French was slightly lower at 10.2%.

Jedwab is at a loss to explain the disparity -- lack of credentials? lack of contacts? discrimination? -- but suggests that it might have something to do with the Queb gov's policy of settling immigrants in the regions, rather than Montreal:

"The regionalization program has by and large been a failure, and maybe this explains why it hasn't worked," Mr. Jedwab said in an interview.

Yes, that certainly would explain it.

legal karma

Andrew Potter — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 12:56:41 -0400

Former US attorney general Alberto Gonzales can't find a job. Despite his credentials,

...he left office last August with a frayed reputation over his role in the dismissal of several federal prosecutors and the truthfulness of his testimony about a secret eavesdropping program. He has had no full-time job since his resignation, and his principal income has come from giving a handful of talks at colleges and before private business groups.

douchebag capitalism

Andrew Potter — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 12:48:46 -0400

Yesterday's WSJ has a good profile of Dov Charney, the Montrealer who founded American Apparel. Charney has become more or less infamous but this piece is useful because it helps illustrate two of the tensions implicit in contemporary capitalism.

The first is the way the notion of "authenticity" has replaced "rebellion" as the litmus test of cool in conteporary capitalism:

Mr. Charney insists his leadership style provides a model of authenticity for young people looking for alternatives to a "Baby Boomer economy which is collapsing."

He is also adamant that his behavior is appropriate for a trendsetting fashion company. Sporting vintage glasses and tight shirts, the 39-year-old Mr. Charney seems almost a living resurrection of the free-spirited 1970s. He sees himself as crusading against today's puritanical conventionality and likens himself to Larry Flynt, the Hustler magazine publisher who fought many First Amendment battles.

The second point is the way Charney's successes and failures illustrate the difference between entrepreneurialism and business. Charney may be a brilliant entrepreneur, but he's a lousy businessman. The company's books are a mess, repeated attempts at bringing in outside financing have fallen through, and the company went without a CFO for years. When he finally decided to get one, he took out a classified as in the Montreal Gazette and got his father to vet the applicants. In a recent interview, he called his current CFO a "loser" who had "no credibility" in the industry.

Fascinating stuff.

robot chicken

Andrew Potter — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 00:18:12 -0400

My friend Dan sends along the following bit of good news:

Although other countries have deployed gun-toting robots and there's no shortage of companies trying to develop weaponized bots for Uncle Sam, it looks like the first test of actual killer robots in battle has ended in a whimper: the Army's TALON SWORD gunbots, are headed home, after being plagued with control issues. Yeah, that's right -- control issues. Apparently it was too hard to prevent the Army's gun-equipped robot from moving its gun "when it was not intended to move." Reassuring, no?

link

attention parents of graduating high schoolers

Andrew Potter — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 23:51:49 -0400

Read this.

Or look at this.

the decline of cheap food

Andrew Potter — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 09:13:52 -0400

A number of people responded to my recent article on declinism by pointing out that my timing couldn't have been worse (for my argument), given skyrocketing food prices. After all, didn't I write that, over the past hundred years, "...Life expectancy rose while infant mortality dropped; the air quality of our cities improved, our food got cheaper and more nutritious..."

Don't I look like an idiot?

Well, not. There are a number of reasons why food prices are increasing, one of which is both inevitable and good (China getting richer and eating more meat), one of which is hopefully temporary (drought). Yes, the drought may have something to do with global warming, but the drought is far from the most important contributing factor to high food prices.

The culprit, more than anything else, is the biofuels/ethanol craze, which is driven entirely by a farm lobby capitalising on global-warming-driven declinist hysteria. Given BOTH increasing food prices AND climate change, biofuels is probably the single stupidest policy we could be implenting.

Once again,declinists are helping cause the very problems they are hoping to solve.

constitutional chicken

Andrew Potter — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 09:03:42 -0400

Ned Franks finally calls Harper's bluff on this asinine "fixed election date" law.

Martin Amis, aesthete

Andrew Potter — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 13:32:28 -0400

My review of Amis's book The Second Plane.

ape versus ape

Andrew Potter — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 19:24:26 -0400

My OC colleague Dan Gardner alerts to the following:

Hitchens vs. Hitchens: On God, War, Politics, and Culture

Brothers Christopher and Peter Hitchens are set for their first public debate, this Thursday, April 3, at 7:30 p.m. at Fountain Street Church in Grand Rapids, Michigan. They plan to debate on numerous topics, from religion to Iraq.

There will be a live Webcast of Hitchens vs Hitchens available at:

http://www.allpresidents.org and http://www.cfimichigan.org on April 3, 2008, 7:30pm

This event is sponsored by Hauenstein Center for Presidential Studies at Grand Valley State University with additional support from CFI Michigan.