Some readers ask why I don't simply admit that Stéphane Dion is, by now, a complete write-off as opposition leader. And indeed, I do think he's done a shaky job at best, combining an opposition organizational chart of absurd, baroque complexity with a message of barren simplicity: He's for the environment. We get it. Any other ideas? No? All righty then.

The polls are illustrative. Here's one now, comparing the prime minister's performance numbers with the opposition leader's. It's pretty grim for the opposition leader. Here goes:
• On "Trust," the PM gets 24%, the opposition leader 15%.
• On "Vision for Canada," the PM gets 29%, the opposition leader 18%.
• On simple "Competence," it's worse still: 33% for the prime minister, 14% for his leader of the opposition. A 19-point gap on the most fundamental requirement of political leadership.

So why not write Dion off? Because this poll isn't about Dion. It's the SES tracking poll for Dec. 6, 2005. The "Prime Minister" in the poll was Paul Martin, the badly stumbling "opposition leader" Stephen Harper, and the poll shows a massive character and leadership gap for Harper — six weeks before he became prime minister.

Am I predicting the same for Dion? Hell, no. Certainly won't happen if he doesn't pick up his game.

But unlike so many of you, I haven't figured out how the next election will end yet.